Avian influenza or "bird flu" are popular names of Influenza A subtype H5N1 that has been infecting humans through bird-to-human transmission. Avian
influenza affect multiple species of wild birds, domestic
birds, and also infects humans. A number of web-sites can introduce you
to the complex ecology and epidemiology of avian influenza.
Web-sites that give background information on AI:
I am interested in modeling AI. I compose ordinary and partial differential equation models of AI and I fit them to data.
there is a lot of data on avian influenza that one can find on the web.
Here are some web-sites that give various types of data about avian flu:
Web-sites with data on AI:
in modeling avian influenza we need census data on human populations
and bird populations. These type of data can be found at the
use the differential equation models to predict the cummulative number
of human cases. First we pre-estimate some of the
parametrs of the model from the biological
exist of the demographics of poultry as well as human demographic
parameters. Then we estimate the remaining parameters of the model
through a process called callibration or fitting. The red data points
in the figure to the left are used for callibration of the
model. Then we obtain the model predictions and we compare it with the
callibration data. The figure to the left shows quite good agreement
between the model predication and the callibration data. Our
callibration data set ends on December 31, 2009 but we can
run the model for longer time than the duration of the
callibration set. Future projections of the model can be
plotted alongside data that were obtained since
January 1, 2010. Those are the green data points
in the figure. Model projections and incoming data
from WHO show good
agreement. We are continuing to monitor how the predictions of the model agree with future data.
is the most dangerous disease linking humans with animals today holding
a deadly pandemic potential. Because of that, it has been drawing the
attention of many modellers. A multitude of differential equation models have been created to investigate different aspects of the disease.
Research supported by the National Science Foundation. All
oppinions expressed are those of the authors and not of NSF.